Presentation of study data
As part of this project of memory project, we are particularly interested in economic growth in Africa. Variables dictated by literary and empirical journals will be retrieved from the World Bank database. In this case, GDP per capita, fossil energy consumption, physical capital ... etc. Other unobservable variables will be able to be calculated. In this sense, it is the savings rate, the net capital inflow, the rates of commercial opening. Our values are in current dollars. The study period or the interval by which we analyze the theme is between 1960 and 2016. In truth, more data remains unavailable for the year 2017. We will then solicit methods of clearing and correction of the missing values before to be able to carry out studies whose prospects seem already purified in the general introduction.
Analyses des résultats économétriques
Table C3.10 shows the estimates of the Dynamic Economic Growth Convergence Test Model using the Arellano-Bond Differential Generalized Moment Method and the Bond-Blundell System. These estimators are consistent if the instruments used are valid (null hypothesis of the Sargan or Hansen test) and there is no autocorrelation (null hypothesis of the Arellano-Bond test). In this context, we realize that there is no conditional convergence of the Solow model in Africa, because its speed of convergence is not accessible with the estimation of the Arellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond estimators. In part, this is due to the presence of 2nd order autocorrelation.
The method of generalized moments with Arellano-Bover / Bond-Blundell and system difference does not also illustrate an existence of conditional convergence velocity. These estimators are consistent if the instruments used are valid (null hypothesis of the Sargan or Hansen test) and there is no autocorrelation (null hypothesis of the Arellano-Bond test). In this terms, only the GMM in system is valid.
The Anderson-Hsiao and LSDV estimators also prove the lack of convergence in Africa for the Solow model. We have more to do with several diversified economies and especially still nursery We will estimate this time the model Solow increased human capital, approximate the number of students in primary school and compare the results obtained beforehand.
The table opposite shows the results of dynamic panel models. In the literature, as we have already pointed out, there is a variety of dynamic methods, that is to say which includes the endogenous variable delayed by one or more periods. In this sense, we group together a battery of these estimators, among which by the Within autoregressive method (Within_AR (1)), autoregressive generalized least squares method (GLS_AR (1)), Arellano-Bond generalized moment method (Diff_GMM ), generalized moments method of Blundell-Bond (Sys_GMM / BB), generalized method of moments of Arellano-Bover and Blundell-Bond in system and difference (Sys_GMM / AB / Diff_GMM / AB), method of Anderson-Hsiao (IV_GMM ) less square method by dynamic dummy variable (LSDV), orthogonality method (OPM), among others, it happens that the estimators of the method of maximum likelihood in dynamic panel is very competitive that the methods of the moments, but for the sake of a paid application, we will not be able to present it. Despite the coefficient significance of the endogenous explanatory variable, all models show the absence of conditional convergence in Africa.
We remind you that the whole of this document is accessible on the Amazon site:
ADAN, A.-B. (2018). Croissance Economique et Développement Durable en Afrique: Analyses Statistiques et Econométriques [Kindle]. Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
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