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Geospatial Assessment of Mangrove Dynamics in Relation to Climate Variability

Understanding changes in mangrove ecosystems driven by human activities, climate change, and environmental variations is essential for effective ecological management. The study analyze the spatiotemporal variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and their responses to parameters such as sea level (SL), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), rainfall (RF), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1 month), soil moisture (SM), minimum temperature (TN), and maximum temperature (TX) within the study area. Trends, relative influences, spatial autocorrelation, and relationships between NDVI and climatic-environmental variables, as well as partial correlations, were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall monotonic trend test (MKMT), Relative Weight Analysis (RWA), partial correlation coefficients (PCC), and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. The spatiotemporal patterns of NDVI, EVI, and SAVI display similar dynamics, showing a reduction in bare soil and an increase in sparse and dense vegetation from 1987 to 2022. Nevertheless, zones of degradation were observed, particularly in southern in 2022 compared to 1987, as indicated by NDVI, EVI, and SAVI. These zones coincide with areas of increased salinity concentration according to the VSSI index over the same period. A notable deterioration in NDVI (> 0.2) was recorded from 2000 to 2012. The interannual trend of NDVI is slightly declining. Additionally, analyses with Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen slope reveal that TN, TX, PET, and SPI-1 show increasing trends, though not statistically significant, while SM and LST show decreasing trends. For environmental variables, SL indicates an upward trend. Further, partial correlation analysis identifies SL, TN, SPI-1, TX, and PET as the primary climatic factors controlling vegetation dynamics during the JJAS season, with PCC values of -0.89, 0.87, 0.77, 0.76, -0.75, and 0.86 with NDVI, respectively. These findings underscore the significant influence of select environmental factors on the spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove vegetation, providing insights critical for conservation and management efforts.

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The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute


The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute