This study provides a multi-scale comparison of simulated and observed precipitation. Global simulations from the CanESM5 model (CMIP6, 282 km) are contrasted with results obtained through stochastic downscaling at 3.5 km using CSTools. Observed rainfall for 1981 is spatially interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW).
In addition, climate projections from the EC-Earth3-Veg model (CMIP6) under the SSP585 scenario are analyzed for the period 2021–2040, focusing on both the Republic of Djibouti and the wider East Africa region. Finally, downscaled daily precipitation from CORDEX (1981–1985) is generated using Nearest Neighbor and Bilinear interpolation, allowing an assessment of the sensitivity of results to methodological choices.
Figure 0. Comparison of rainfall variability from satellite products versus observation in situ from 1980 to 2021.
Figure 1. CMIP6 GCM CanESM5 precipitation for 1981 (spatial resolution: 282 km).
Figure 4. Projected total monthly precipitation (mm) from the EC-Earth3-Veg model (GCM-CMIP6), based on the ssp585 scenario Over the Republic of Djibouti during 2021-2040.
Figure 6. Downscaled daily precipitation from CORDEX (1981–1985) using (a) Nearest Neighbor interpolation, (b) Bilinear interpolation, and (c) original CORDEX data for comparison.
Figure 7. Performance comparison of the occurrence, duration and intensity of rainfall simulated by Canadian global and regional climate models against the observed rainfall at the airport station.
Table Accuracy of GCM CMIP6 model performance using Delta - QM – EQM biais correction for precipitation at Djibouti airport station
| R² | RMSE | PBIAIS |
CanESM5_Delta_ssp585 | -0.005 | 4.942 | 0.024 |
CanESM5_QM_ssp585 | -0.003 | 8.118 | 0.019 |
CanESM5_EQM_ssp585 | -0.005 | 5.171 | 0.299 |
CanESM5_Delta_ssp119 | -0.006 | 4.984 | 0.023 |
CanESM5_QM_ssp119 | -0.003 | 8.173 | 0.09 |
CanESM5_EQM_ssp119 | -0.005 | 5.237 | 0.187 |
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