Econometric Analysis: Panel Error Correction Model

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https://www.amazon.fr/Boutique-Kindle-ABDI-BASID-ADAN/s?ie=UTF8&page=1&rh=n%3A672108031%2Cp_27%3AABDI-BASID%20ADAN)

 

1. Presentation of study data

As part of this project of memory project, we are particularly interested in economic growth in Africa. Variables dictated by literary and empirical journals will be retrieved from the World Bank database. In this case, per capita GDP, fossil energy consumption, physical capital, etc. Other unobservable variables will be measured. In this sense, it is the savings rate, the inflow of capital, the rates of trade opening. Our values are in current dollars. The period of study or the interval by which we analyze the thesis is between 1960 and 2016. In truth, the more the data remains unavailable for the year 2017. We will then ask for methods of clearing and correction of the missing values before being able to carry out studies whose prospects have already been clarified in the general introduction.

1. Analysis of econometric results

 

This table shows the results of the different non-dynamic panel error correction method estimators, such as the Pesaran & Smith (1995) Mean Group (PS-MGE), Demeaned Mean Groups (DMG), and Pesaran estimators. (2006) Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (P-CCE-MG), Polarized Mean Group (PMG), Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS). As emphasized by Kuznets' environmental thesis on the relationship between emissions and economic growth. In particular, an inverted "U" curve shape or an inverted parabola that is no longer convex but concave. In order to verify this hypothesis, the validity of the estimated coefficients α, β 𝑒𝑡 γ on the basis of the existence of the latter between the relation between per capita income and CO2 emissions per capita should be validated. Among other things, these coefficients are significant only in the Pesaran & Smith (1995), FM-OLS and DOLS models.

ADAN, A.-B. (2018). Croissance Economique et Développement Durable en Afrique: Analyses Statistiques et Econométriques [Kindle]. Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.

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Statistical analysis : Prediction Technique

  

we remind that it is an extract of the book economic growth and sustainable development in structure (statistical and econometric analysis) whose site: https://www.amazon.fr/Boutique-Kindle-ABDI-BASID-ADAN / s? ie = UTF8 & page = 1 & rh = n 3A672108031%%% 2Cp_27 3AABDI-Basid% 20ADAN

 

1. Presentation of study data

As part of this project of memory project, we are particularly interested in economic growth in Africa. Variables dictated by literary and empirical journals will be retrieved from the World Bank database. In this case, GDP per capita, fossil energy consumption, physical capital ... etc. Other unobservable variables will be able to be calculated. In this sense, it is the savings rate, the net capital inflow, the rates of commercial opening. Our values ​​are in current dollars. The study period or the interval by which we analyze the theme is between 1960 and 2016. In truth, more data remains unavailable for the year 2017. We will then solicit methods of clearing and correction of the missing values ​​before to be able to carry out studies whose prospects seem already purified in the general introduction.

 

 

 

 

 

2. Analysis of statistical results

The graph above illustrates the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Nigeria from 1960 to 2016. Its emissions were staggering between 1970 to 1985 exceeding 0.8 tons per capita. It can be due to both human activities and natural ones. Contrary to this increase, a significant decrease is almost half of the CO2 emissions of the previous period, between 0.2 and 0.4 tons per inhabitant.

According to this graph, unlike the previous one, we smoothed the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Nigeria over the period 1960 to 2016 by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. We have the trend and cyclical components of the series.

The graph above graphically illustrates the autocorrelation function (left) and partial autocorrelation (right) of the CO2 series. Indeed, the latter are defined by the ratio between the covariance functions and the variance of the observed and predicted variable. Although a simple tool for selecting the order p and q of a mobile medium autoregressive model. It also allows to detect a seasonality, if the case is monthly, we will observe then a significant delay of multiple of 12, semi-annual order of multiple of 2, quarterly of order multiplies of 4. In our case, it is clear that the first less quickly. In faith whereof, it would be a non-stationary variable. It is therefore not stationary in Level. The conventional forecasting techniques are not suitable for predicting this variable, we will consider the forecast by Box and Jenkins. To make sure perform a stationarity test of Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron.

The result of the estimation of the ARIMA model (0,1,1) discloses the non-significance of MA (1). This seems to imply that the final model most suitable for estimating predicted CO2 values is an ARIMA (0,1,0).

 

 

 

 

 

Forecasts show that CO2 emissions will continue to rise for the coming years in Nigeria until 2021, which is a bit worrying if there is no commitment to readjust economic policies to promote a green economy.

ADAN, A.-B. (2018). Croissance Economique et Développement Durable en Afrique: Analyses Statistiques et Econométriques [Kindle]. Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.

 © 2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

 

 

🏛️ tABCi Laboratories :

🧪 Abdi-Basid ADAN LABS  | Focus: Interdisciplinary Sciences & Education.

🧠 The Deep Thinking Lab | Focus: Philosophy & Human Sciences.

🌍 The EcoClimate Hub | Focus: Climate Science & Environment.

Contact : Abdi-Basid ADAN [abdi-basid@outlook.com]

 © 2017-2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

A stupefying substance: Luck

Life on Earth does not seem to be on the same right as Adam and Eve werein paradise. Without doubt, it is assimilated to a vulgar struggle for survivalnot only for humans, including animals. It is rather a field to which all thespecies  have been invited  to  develop  know-how  and  benefit  from  theirperenniality. Sometimes it seems as if life for animals seems better than itis for man. Because of the height of his consciousness, the human being ismore than  ever  forced  to  work.  Hard work  to  support  himself  and  hiscommunity. So,  are  the   actual  efforts  related  to  luck?  Or  is  Success   acombination of  effort and opportunity? to do so, to agree on sufficientlyconvincing principles, let us imagine that we will have to progress for afinal selection, a final  step. It must be  known that the courage and griefaccumulated often  do   not  tend to  equal   the  expected values.  The  finalsituation is not rather in volteface but can be argued to be in favor of theconsent of an individual is the worst case, the opposite.How to explain such a phenomenon in everyday life? Without doubt, manyof you, will seek the role of luck. In this condition, does luck assume itsshare of responsibility in the evolution of each event? Is it unfair to somethat it is unfair to others? a first thing that we can legitimately envision andthat would know a common point between the different readers: it is that offirst conceiving the essence of luck. It is defined as a hazard, a chance, alikelihood. But quantifiable and measured by a probability, the number ofchances that an event can take place. Let's go back to the experience of thefinal qualification to see the coherence. Imagine that you are part of thesefinalists. You have to choose between four letters 'A', 'B', 'C' and 'D'. As thephrase exchanging begins with the letter 'C', we will pretend to say that 'C'is the good option among the others. In other words, each individual of thefinalists will each have a chance in 100 to celebrate their moment of glory.In spite of your efforts and the commitment you have made to reach thelevel of yourself, the fact is that the expected result will hardly be a directresult   of   your   commitments.   So   to   speak,   luck is not  observable   butestimableIt is identical for each individual and therefore neutral. Rather, it is our freewill that determines the root cause of our choices, the consequences of our

work, and the decisions we continually make in our lives. However, howare we to explain the absurd notion that is related to a favorable situationthat  could  benefit a  natural  or legal  person  or a  state.  This  is  clearly awavelength ahead for the possessor individual than the one who is deprivedof it.  Is luck a  privilege in this case? otherwise, does the privilege  itselfstand a chance? As an example, we realize that the comparative advantagesbetween countries are very complementary economically. It should be saidthat it is rather beneficial for all, that is, a positive multilateral externality.

Abdi-Basid ADAN, 2018.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324603465_A_stupefying_substance_Luck

 © 2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

 

 

🏛️ tABCi Laboratories :

🧪 Abdi-Basid ADAN LABS  | Focus: Interdisciplinary Sciences & Education.

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 © 2017-2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

How to develop human capital in developing countries?

In its economic revolution, the pioneering factor in its empirical modeling of economic growth was, in principle, that of technical progress, to which human capital constitutes in the same way the core of technological progress. In the literature, a plurality of variables are considered to represent human capital and in this sense, including the gross enrollment rate, literacy rate, attendance rate ... etc. From my point of view, human capital is simply the primary solution for sustained economic growth. But the neglect of this parameter in the process of the realization of the economic policy of a country proved incompatible with the objectives of the State. More investment in a promoter channel in the education sector is needed, a top priority for a developing country. It is not enough to construct school units in different regions and departments, but first to define a model for preserving the quality of teaching at the national level. To do this, it would be unambiguous to define an index of elementary knowledge (ICE) that specifically takes into account each discipline by implementing a relationship between the part of the discipline mastered on the part of the same discipline that is ignored. To achieve this, it would be necessary to graduate on a bar of 100 any discipline and updated this index in the short term to be able to evaluate the evolution of each individual in each given discipline. The system of diploma recognition of the levels or expertise acquired by an individual in Africa is no longer adequate, we now need to consider a new and much more robust indicator at the continental level, which will essentially contribute to the industrialization of African countries in the short term. It is not surprising to see also the impact of foreign cultural influence on new generations. In reference to the American culture that punches the ideas, the intentions, the long-term goals of each generation and each individual. It seems imprudent to have adverse effects on school success rates in infected countries. In these terms, we must also measure the cultural variable on a 100% bar and quantify the intensity of this influence in a given society. It is likely that we will have to identify a monotonous and growing relationship between the failure rate of schooling and the foreign cultural variable, that is to say, more a foreign culture is needed in the face of the local culture and the lower the school success rate, and indirectly the upward pressure on the unemployment rate and therefore the economic growth itself of the culturally victimized countries. Attention, it is important to recognize the negative effects on education, on the growth of the foreign cultural force in a destination country. 

It would be possible to observe these phenomena from the concrete data and to note a rather importantcorrelation  between  the  school  failure  rate  and  the  foreign  culture  variable.  On   the  other  hand  anegative correlation between the growth rate and the foreign culture variable.

Abdi-Basid ADAN, 2018

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324691807_How_to_develop_human_capital_in_developing_countries

 © 2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

 

 

🏛️ tABCi Laboratories :

🧪 Abdi-Basid ADAN LABS  | Focus: Interdisciplinary Sciences & Education.

🧠 The Deep Thinking Lab | Focus: Philosophy & Human Sciences.

🌍 The EcoClimate Hub | Focus: Climate Science & Environment.

Contact : Abdi-Basid ADAN [abdi-basid@outlook.com]

 © 2017-2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.