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2025-08-15
Evolution of the Intelligence of the Human Species
馃幆 The detailed methodology and results can be accessed through this link:
馃憠click here now! : https://www.impactio.com/laboratory/
Abdi-Basid ADAN
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Statistical Analysis of Environmental and Climate Data Using Pixel-Wise Multiple Regression, OLS, and Geographically Weighted Regression in the R Programming Language: Application to Vegetation Index (VI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST), Potential Evap
馃幆 The detailed methodology and results can be accessed through this link:
馃憠click here now! : https://www.impactio.com/laboratory/
2025-08-14
Forecast with the Adanic Method
Abstract
In the present study, we expose a new technique of quantitative forecast called Adanique. First of its kind, because it wants to be a newcomer in the classic prediction methods known until today. Generally divided into two, in this case statistical methods (endogenous approach) and econometric methods using a purely exogenous approach. The new so-called adanic forecasting technique uses this double principle to allow a new forecasting approach. The approach of the adanic method and its demonstration on the scientific values are spread out in the sections below.
Keywords: Forecasting, Econometrics, Statistics and Adanic
Conclusion
The adanic forecasting method is both based on the ethical principle of statistical and econometric forecasting. The future estimation of the values of a chronicle indirectly by explanatory variables is the main part of the econometric forecast. With regard to statistics, we are satisfied only with the historical values of the series in question. As a result, indirect and direct prediction is the principle of adanic forecasting. Experience has shown that the result is positive because it has shown a retractability of historical and observed values of the series over the years. On the other hand, it should be recalled that the forecasting indicator did not prove very favorable to adanic forecasting. It must not be thought that there is a magnitude whose reliability is absolute, because the future behavior of a series is primarily random and not deterministic. Can it be that the average of three methods or two methods is also an option for predicting a given magnitude?
馃幆 The detailed methodology and results can be accessed through this link:
馃憠click here now! : https://www.researchgate.net
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Mod猫le 脿 Correction d’Erreur 脿 Equations Simultan茅es : en Cas Standard et Spatial des Donn茅es de Panel
R茅sum茅 :
脌 la suite de la d茅ficience d’un mod猫le performant de premier plan en 茅conom茅trie, le monde scientifique semble 脿 jamais oppos茅 sur plusieurs th茅ories 茅conomies, parmi lesquelles la courbe de Kuznets Environnementale, l’existence des convergences conditionnelles des 茅conomie…etc. Cette crise dont souffre le monde scientifique particuli猫rement dans le domaine de l’茅conomie m’a pouss茅 脿 r茅fl茅chir sur un nouveau mod猫le 茅conom茅trique plus complexe contournant plusieurs d茅faillances des autres mod猫les : c’est le mod猫le 脿 茅quations simultan茅es 脿 correction d’erreur standard et spatial des donn茅es de panel.
Mots Cl茅s : mod猫le 脿 茅quations simultan茅es 脿 correction d’erreur standard et spatial des donn茅es de panel, courbe de Kuznets environnementale.
Conclusion
La r茅duction en une 茅quation r茅duite d’un mod猫le 脿 茅quations simultan茅es exigerait une coint茅gration afin d’en d茅duire un mod猫le 脿 correction d’erreur 脿 茅quations simultan茅es. Cette approche va certainement proposer des estimateurs encore mieux efficients pour permettre de trancher sur plusieurs articles contradictoires. De plus l’introduction de la matrice des poids dans un tel mod猫le ne fera que renforcer ses capacit茅s dans la prise en compte des effets spatiaux. Ici, la correction d’erreur est venue avant l’int茅gration de la matrice des poids. Bien qu’il soit en cours de d茅veloppement, une 茅quation spatiale 脿 correction d’erreur ou une 茅quation 脿 correction d’erreur spatiale ne serait pas identique. En outre, la prise en compte des aspects plus complexes dans un mod猫le performant palliant les d茅faillances des autres mod猫les permettra de proposer un consensus dans un monde scientifique perplexe. Le mod猫le par excellence serait celui 脿 correction d’erreur 脿 茅quations simultan茅es spatiale ou standard en panel.
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Qualitative Data Analysis (QDA)
From the econometric point of view:
On the econometric level, the analysis of the qualitative variable (categorical or nominal) takes place in two ways: either it consists of considering it and apprehending it as being an endogenous variable, or of course retaining it as an exogenous variable and to study it in a model of qualitative econometrics. Added to this is the possibility of analyzing the link between two qualitative variables through Chi-square test of independence (especially not to be confused with the Chi-square test of adequacy). In addition, models of qualitative econometrics are diverse, and some may be very complex than they are. Let us quote a few of the simplest to the most complex: the Probit binominal model, Logit binominal, Gombit, simple Tobit, Tobit generalized type I, II, III, IV, V, Tobit double censored, Tobit multiple censorship (truncated or limited), Heckit ... etc.
The data structure, although dynamic on the temporal component, may vary according to each observation and in this case takes the form of panel data. We will explain in the previous section some principles of these models. To find out about the nature of the model that one has to do, one can easily define according to the domain of definition of the function but also of the modalities provided by the endogenous qualitative variable. These are variables, which are often derived from inquiries concerning a character of appreciation, opinion, satisfaction. ... etc. Others can be calculated and not observed as such. Their studies are as indispensable as the quantitative ones to make significant efforts in a specific direction.
The simultaneity of a qualitative endogenous variable explained by another qualitative exogenous variable is certainly possible. To study in such a case, it will be necessary to consider one of the modalities of the variable while retaining the others to serve as references in the meaning of the results obtained. As for the qualitative endogenous variable, it is presented in terms of probability. To achieve this, a latent continuous variable is enough to facilitate the calculation in terms of probability of the modalities of the endogenous variable. A positive probability is indeed synonymous with a growing number of chances. It is eminent to note, on the other hand, the convergence of the solution after iterations in both the concave and convex cases. Beyond the significance by predictor variable, the overall significance or the adequacy of the model is a notion of appreciation of the model design. Thus, the coefficient of determination indicator of Mc Fadden and Hekman also called pseudo Rsquare makes a judgment on the quality of the fit of the model. In other words, the explanatory power or the part of the fluctuation explained by the variables retained in the model.
On the other hand, the remaining percentage is usually less than 50% and corresponds to the relevant variables not considered. The Hosmer Lemeshow test also goes in the same direction on the quality of the fit. Indeed, it is by the marginal effects that we know more about the impact of each variable introduced into the model. The obtained estimators give an idea of the nature of the influence of the exogenous variable on the endogenous. In principle, it is recognized that there is a difficulty in interpreting the terms of the explanatory variable. It is then better to set a modality as a reference and to interpret by comparing with those used as references in the analysis. In most cases, the choice of modeling between Logit, Gombit (or extreme value) and Probit is done with the predictive power of the model. The best of them will be retained for the final modeling.
From a statistical point of view:
In statistics, there are a variety of univariate and multivariate analysis procedures, including the family of factorial methods: factorial correspondence analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, multiple factor analysis, factorial analysis of mixed data. In some of these methods, it could concern both the qualitative and quantitative variables, so we evoke a mixed analysis of the variables. In addition, other techniques study the link between nominal and mixed variables. In this case, for example, the Chi-square test, the Cramer Rao coefficient, the correlation ratio, the analysis of the variance (ANOVA), etc. Statistically analyzing the qualitative variables is to perform the same operation seen in econometrics. In other words, make each modality a new variable. Therefore, in some studies we talk about the existence of a complete disjunctive table or Burt's chart. In addition, the match name refers to the link between the nominal variables. The search for axes expressing more meaning to the data is the common denominator of all factorial methods. It is rather in Multiple Correspondence Analysis that there is a massive loss of information and therefore the need to take certain results with care. The principles of the factorial analysis of correspondences, as the name indicates it allows to highlight the correspondences between two qualitative variables. In other words, the link whose modalities intervene and specially to identify the nature of the link that can be attractive, repulsive or independent. In this sense, it is an exploratory method, descriptive of data, established by Benzecri in the 70's.
The idea is to translate the proximity of modalities as a link between the variables and specially to grasp as an identical profile for individuals which they describe. In contrast, the multiple analysis of the correspondences is a generalization of the factorial analysis of the correspondences, which itself is a double Analysis in Principal Components on on the one hand the line profile and on the other hand the profile column in a table contingency. Another aspect of distinction is that in simple factor analysis, the raw table is not studied directly, that might be interpreted as differences between rows and columns. It is also important, when interpreting, to avoid marginal low-margin modalities lest it influence the contributions of others. In discriminant analysis, it requires the presence of a qualitative variable with several quantitative variables.
The principle is to put in place a linear combination of the quantitative variables separating at best the studied population. The discriminant function can be obtained using multiple linear regression. According to a threshold and the modalities of the qualitative variable, one determines the points individuals misplaced. The ideal is that it requires more than a minimum number of misplaced individuals. For this, one should think about including other variables in the regression and repeating at several iterative. The particularity of the discriminant analysis is that it is apart from its exploratory function, a decision-making method.
From the point of view of hierarchical classification:
From the point of view of the ascending or descending hierarchical classification, the implementation is made possible by multitudes of metric distance calculation algorithms, among which the Manhattan method, weighted distance, Ward ... etc. The idea is to reduce the number of classes by iteration by grouping the one that is similar or the one whose dissimilarity is minimal (according to the index of aggregation). In other words, we try to minimize intra class variance. This partitioning derives from the distance matrix in a space of R power variable number. Identical profiles show individuals with the same preference for a given choice or the same profile for a characteristic of the individuals sought.
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The concept of Darwin, a partial and partial theory
The concept of Darwin, a partial and partial theory
Charles
Darwin, palaeontology and English naturalist, published in 1859, the book
"From the origins of species." Although independent thinker, he had
to borrow the hypothesis emitted by Jean-Baptiste de Lamarck, 50 years rather.
In fact, almost all of his research is based on three major points: unity,
species diversity and natural selection. In truth, the idea that Darwin puts
forward his argument is simply illusory, because indeed, in his formulation, he
suggested that one constantly keeps the excavations of remains of spaces to
support his postulates.
It
is very damaging to see the birth of a Darwinism current that persists with
determination, educating the new generations of values that do not conform to
the principles of scientificity and that defends truthful facts as mere facts.
In spite of what, I would demonstrate in this article the unfoundedness of
Darwin's theories on the human lineage in general.
From
the point of view of the uniqueness of human beings, it is necessary to
ascertain by nature the true existence of a relative similarity between several
living beings more on the anatomical than on the morphological level;
chromosomal; molecular ... etc. As well for the species of the same medium as
those of the distinct environments. This should not, under any circumstances
let us think of the idea of a common ancestor. The evolution of a being
"origin" or plural as presupposes Darwinism can not explain the
settlement of the billions of billions of living species on Earth. This
constitutes a misinterpretation of nature and its evolution. In principle, the
commonality between species is irrefutable and must be seen from the angle of
belonging to the same supreme being and not to the same common ancestor. Now it
is amazing to explain an infinite multiplicity of beings, knowing that others
are undiscovered until 2018 as being a drift of one or more common ancestors.
On the principle of science, phylogeny is not in line with the evolution of
species in a much more global dimension, it is partial and partial in its
concept. Time would not be the mastermind of the "magic"
differentiation of these species. In the excavation of skeletal remains, discoveries
constantly call into question even the relative consideration of Darwin's
principles. In 2004, a team of prospecting Aramco Exploration Team would have
discovered, besides in Saudi Arabia a human skeleton of outsized proportions.
The finding of remains of the giant men would be the incontestable proof of the
basis of Darwinism thought.
With
regard to the diversity of living things, it is quite clear that nature is
balanced by this principle, it is necessary and unconditional diversity to
allow the longevity of life on Earth. In this sense, all species intertwine
with each other. This diversity can not be denounced, it is welcomed without
exception, Again, it must be remembered that plants are living beings and that
the earth is so. I can not understand how Darwin could think of these beings.
Descartes in his explanation brings about the origin of the mistakes that
rushing further pushes people to make mistakes. Darwin's attitude is the
perfect example. This diversity, in fact, derives from the ingenuity of a
supreme being unequivocal and unambiguous. Finally, natural selection, although
defined as the equilibrium of the environmental balance over species over time.
It is quite complex to be able to understand in a complete dimension. Reproduction of some species is in favor of
others. The disparity of others is advantageous for future new species, which
can derive from minority strains. The complex environment, predator and prey
governs this complex principle par excellence.
In
conclusion, to think that uniqueness gives way to the diversity of species is
illusory. Although natural selection is the driving force behind the evolution
of species over time. It is not the latter that determines the period between
the uniqueness and the diversity of species. The mystery of the uniqueness of
living beings still remains to be seen, in my opinion it is the manifestation
of a supreme being which defines it. The diversity of beings is an essential
essence for the stability and continuity of life on Earth. The role of natural
selection should be understood as the interaction between environment and
species. From these points of view, there is no common ancestor in the human
lineage with apes. The only similarity can not justify this, it is the utopian
drift of the currents Darwinisms.
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