Statistical analysis : Prediction Technique

  

we remind that it is an extract of the book economic growth and sustainable development in structure (statistical and econometric analysis) whose site: https://www.amazon.fr/Boutique-Kindle-ABDI-BASID-ADAN / s? ie = UTF8 & page = 1 & rh = n 3A672108031%%% 2Cp_27 3AABDI-Basid% 20ADAN

 

1. Presentation of study data

As part of this project of memory project, we are particularly interested in economic growth in Africa. Variables dictated by literary and empirical journals will be retrieved from the World Bank database. In this case, GDP per capita, fossil energy consumption, physical capital ... etc. Other unobservable variables will be able to be calculated. In this sense, it is the savings rate, the net capital inflow, the rates of commercial opening. Our values ​​are in current dollars. The study period or the interval by which we analyze the theme is between 1960 and 2016. In truth, more data remains unavailable for the year 2017. We will then solicit methods of clearing and correction of the missing values ​​before to be able to carry out studies whose prospects seem already purified in the general introduction.

 

 

 

 

 

2. Analysis of statistical results

The graph above illustrates the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Nigeria from 1960 to 2016. Its emissions were staggering between 1970 to 1985 exceeding 0.8 tons per capita. It can be due to both human activities and natural ones. Contrary to this increase, a significant decrease is almost half of the CO2 emissions of the previous period, between 0.2 and 0.4 tons per inhabitant.

According to this graph, unlike the previous one, we smoothed the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Nigeria over the period 1960 to 2016 by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. We have the trend and cyclical components of the series.

The graph above graphically illustrates the autocorrelation function (left) and partial autocorrelation (right) of the CO2 series. Indeed, the latter are defined by the ratio between the covariance functions and the variance of the observed and predicted variable. Although a simple tool for selecting the order p and q of a mobile medium autoregressive model. It also allows to detect a seasonality, if the case is monthly, we will observe then a significant delay of multiple of 12, semi-annual order of multiple of 2, quarterly of order multiplies of 4. In our case, it is clear that the first less quickly. In faith whereof, it would be a non-stationary variable. It is therefore not stationary in Level. The conventional forecasting techniques are not suitable for predicting this variable, we will consider the forecast by Box and Jenkins. To make sure perform a stationarity test of Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron.

The result of the estimation of the ARIMA model (0,1,1) discloses the non-significance of MA (1). This seems to imply that the final model most suitable for estimating predicted CO2 values is an ARIMA (0,1,0).

 

 

 

 

 

Forecasts show that CO2 emissions will continue to rise for the coming years in Nigeria until 2021, which is a bit worrying if there is no commitment to readjust economic policies to promote a green economy.

ADAN, A.-B. (2018). Croissance Economique et Développement Durable en Afrique: Analyses Statistiques et Econométriques [Kindle]. Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.

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A stupefying substance: Luck

Life on Earth does not seem to be on the same right as Adam and Eve werein paradise. Without doubt, it is assimilated to a vulgar struggle for survivalnot only for humans, including animals. It is rather a field to which all thespecies  have been invited  to  develop  know-how  and  benefit  from  theirperenniality. Sometimes it seems as if life for animals seems better than itis for man. Because of the height of his consciousness, the human being ismore than  ever  forced  to  work.  Hard work  to  support  himself  and  hiscommunity. So,  are  the   actual  efforts  related  to  luck?  Or  is  Success   acombination of  effort and opportunity? to do so, to agree on sufficientlyconvincing principles, let us imagine that we will have to progress for afinal selection, a final  step. It must be  known that the courage and griefaccumulated often  do   not  tend to  equal   the  expected values.  The  finalsituation is not rather in volteface but can be argued to be in favor of theconsent of an individual is the worst case, the opposite.How to explain such a phenomenon in everyday life? Without doubt, manyof you, will seek the role of luck. In this condition, does luck assume itsshare of responsibility in the evolution of each event? Is it unfair to somethat it is unfair to others? a first thing that we can legitimately envision andthat would know a common point between the different readers: it is that offirst conceiving the essence of luck. It is defined as a hazard, a chance, alikelihood. But quantifiable and measured by a probability, the number ofchances that an event can take place. Let's go back to the experience of thefinal qualification to see the coherence. Imagine that you are part of thesefinalists. You have to choose between four letters 'A', 'B', 'C' and 'D'. As thephrase exchanging begins with the letter 'C', we will pretend to say that 'C'is the good option among the others. In other words, each individual of thefinalists will each have a chance in 100 to celebrate their moment of glory.In spite of your efforts and the commitment you have made to reach thelevel of yourself, the fact is that the expected result will hardly be a directresult   of   your   commitments.   So   to   speak,   luck is not  observable   butestimableIt is identical for each individual and therefore neutral. Rather, it is our freewill that determines the root cause of our choices, the consequences of our

work, and the decisions we continually make in our lives. However, howare we to explain the absurd notion that is related to a favorable situationthat  could  benefit a  natural  or legal  person  or a  state.  This  is  clearly awavelength ahead for the possessor individual than the one who is deprivedof it.  Is luck a  privilege in this case? otherwise, does the privilege  itselfstand a chance? As an example, we realize that the comparative advantagesbetween countries are very complementary economically. It should be saidthat it is rather beneficial for all, that is, a positive multilateral externality.

Abdi-Basid ADAN, 2018.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324603465_A_stupefying_substance_Luck

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How to develop human capital in developing countries?

In its economic revolution, the pioneering factor in its empirical modeling of economic growth was, in principle, that of technical progress, to which human capital constitutes in the same way the core of technological progress. In the literature, a plurality of variables are considered to represent human capital and in this sense, including the gross enrollment rate, literacy rate, attendance rate ... etc. From my point of view, human capital is simply the primary solution for sustained economic growth. But the neglect of this parameter in the process of the realization of the economic policy of a country proved incompatible with the objectives of the State. More investment in a promoter channel in the education sector is needed, a top priority for a developing country. It is not enough to construct school units in different regions and departments, but first to define a model for preserving the quality of teaching at the national level. To do this, it would be unambiguous to define an index of elementary knowledge (ICE) that specifically takes into account each discipline by implementing a relationship between the part of the discipline mastered on the part of the same discipline that is ignored. To achieve this, it would be necessary to graduate on a bar of 100 any discipline and updated this index in the short term to be able to evaluate the evolution of each individual in each given discipline. The system of diploma recognition of the levels or expertise acquired by an individual in Africa is no longer adequate, we now need to consider a new and much more robust indicator at the continental level, which will essentially contribute to the industrialization of African countries in the short term. It is not surprising to see also the impact of foreign cultural influence on new generations. In reference to the American culture that punches the ideas, the intentions, the long-term goals of each generation and each individual. It seems imprudent to have adverse effects on school success rates in infected countries. In these terms, we must also measure the cultural variable on a 100% bar and quantify the intensity of this influence in a given society. It is likely that we will have to identify a monotonous and growing relationship between the failure rate of schooling and the foreign cultural variable, that is to say, more a foreign culture is needed in the face of the local culture and the lower the school success rate, and indirectly the upward pressure on the unemployment rate and therefore the economic growth itself of the culturally victimized countries. Attention, it is important to recognize the negative effects on education, on the growth of the foreign cultural force in a destination country. 

It would be possible to observe these phenomena from the concrete data and to note a rather importantcorrelation  between  the  school  failure  rate  and  the  foreign  culture  variable.  On   the  other  hand  anegative correlation between the growth rate and the foreign culture variable.

Abdi-Basid ADAN, 2018

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324691807_How_to_develop_human_capital_in_developing_countries

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Metaphysical science: conceptualization of the soul (part III)

 Do we this time attach to the pure and simple principles of the soul? It is obvious that it is asubject in the metaphysical domain, a rather complex theme that no science seems to explain.Indeed, the guiding idea of  the  soul undoubtedly  relates to  that of life,  in this  sense to  thebeating of the heart, then to the breath, two great indicators of the living being.By taking a closer look, we notice that it is a perfect energy that seems to animate the wholebody. 
Inestimable   self-sufficiency in   her. An inexhaustible  power. However, doomed   to  acompulsory departure from this world after a stay that varies from one individual or from onespecies to another, very distinct in hours, days, years, centuries ... etc.A body and soul to form Man, two principles at the end of a new sequel. It is customary torecall   that   there   would   always   be   two   related   foundations   to   attest   to   any   stability(functioning) in nature, such as the gravitational attraction and the sphericity of the Earth forthe equilibrium on its surface; expiration and  inspiration for breathing, rubbing and oxygenfor fire, weight and impulse of Archimedes ... etc.Absolutely,   we   learned  from   science,   following   the   fertilization   or   fusion   of   informationgametes for the purpose of converging to an embryo, during 9 months of the creation of Man.It is difficult to clarify the concept of the soul in this crucial phase for the understanding of thesoul. In reality, the fusion of the genetic information can only allow the formation of other cellsor an organism, but not in evidence a spirit or a soul. 
Necessarily, it would exist, therefore aprimordial step for the spiritual conception at that of the organism. That cells are not enoughto  form a  Man,  in this  sense in  the absence  of a  vital component  to his creation which isnothing but the soul. As mysterious as it is, but then where does it come from and what is itshistory? To this day, there is no  provable information on the creation of the soul. In spite ofthis, this spirit hardly remembers its period of pre-existence before Man. His story seems toend   well   after   birth.   There   is   even   an   anecdote   between   'mind   and   intelligence'.   Theintelligence is rather organic, but the  intangible mind is used  to close to an end. In clearerterms, it represents for him, a source of visual data processing, audio, smell, sense, ... etc.,But  also storage of information in  the form  of  memories, reminders, recitation ... etc.  . So,that supposes  well,  that the mind   uses its information  processing   system well, but  not   so
much that of storage, it is rather with  the   time  that   this   capacity   deviates   operational.  
It is obvious that a child cries due to  a disturbance to a foreign superior force. Despite thisadvantage, once  mature,  humans do not   remember  anything from their   first days, weeks,months and years. In this sense, the soul remembers nothing of its past, nor of the processof the  formation   of   the embryo to the   fetus,   etc.   Enclosed in  a   body, he is the   absolutemanager of  the body. In a way, its own  jungle. It sometimes happens that the man  himselfdoes not  manage   to   understand himself, the reason why   often   people use the psys. It   iscertainly due to the storage information that the individual was able to achieve without payingattention.  However, what  can we know  more about  him?  It is  almost  palpable to  persuadethat the quest for the soul will allow to clarify the truthfulness by the reclining accuracy of theMan. The soul once outside its carcass, no longer deserves to stay on this Earth, indeed, thetime of disintegration of the body has arrived, for the soul does not remain a new beginning,so it seems reasonable to solicit the idea of welcoming to another space separate from thispresent. Just like, the arrival in this world, the spirit locked in a body is welcomed by a familyor another  one.  This  space   seems   to   him  unknown and  it   is   gradually, that he learns  todiscover is   that  really here below. By  then,   a first intuitive  concept   can be deduced:  Withconviction, the soul in a body ensures the life of here according to any term (stay). It is notexcluded  during sleep,  although  the unconscious  reigns  in the  mind,  the man  continues  tobreathe   and   from   the   still   a   strong   sign   of   a   body   alive.      
Philosophers call him the instinct of life, this desire to live constantly and not to want to die. Inreality, it is after learning about life on Earth, through various sensations that the soul is muchmore  committed  to   reign  in  this   world  of  various   shapes  and   colors,   ensure   its   survivalforever. One reason she would not leave her anyway. Another remarkable point is that spiritsmate,   unlike   angels.   Souls   react   through   the   body,  not  by   itself.   In   this   case,   we   candesignate this world, as the world of carcass or body, unlike that of souls. Would there be alife   after  death?   In  this   life,  souls   are   enclosed   in   a  body,  which   we  have   previouslydesignated life here below as bodily life. It  is undoubtedly irrefutable to see a reality that isoften scary: that of seeing the body age with time. In this sense, the body evolves with time.The  body   has known  its  creation in  this world and   will know its  end too,  to  become dust.From there, it is a matter of glimpsing that it is a question of a life according to a fixed termand  indirectly linked  to the body. There  is none for a stay  proper to the soul. Its history isabstract, it comes spontaneously play a vital role in the body during the formation of fetuses.This speculates on the certain possibility of another life reserved especially for the soul. Whatare   its   peculiarities   apart   from   those   we   have   just   mentioned?  Among   the   supernaturalcreatures, angels, souls, devils and jinns all have several common and divergent points. Asfar   as   souls   are   concerned,   they   are   destined   to   a   reduced   term        to  taste death  compared to others. Thus, there would be a  difference between the  soul  of
Man and that of other creatures on earth such as animals, plants ... etc. 
 Let's see what othersources say: One of the most convincing sources of human creation in its microscopic phaseis mentioned several times in the seventh century Koran, as these verses report: "[72] Once Ihave given him his definitive form and animated him with  My breath, you will bow down tohim. 38. Surat Sad (Saad): "[7] He created all things to perfection and created the creation ofman  from   clay;  [8]   then  of   a   vile  liquid   He   drew   his  offspring;  [9]   Then   He  gave   Him aharmonious   form   and   breathed   into   Him   His   Spirit,   thus   giving   you   hearing,   sight,   andintelligence. But it is rare that you show Him your gratitude! 32. Surah of the Prosternation(As-Sajda).   In   Islam,   God  sends  the   angel   to   breathe   the   soul   into   the   organism   inconception. Indeed, according to what was reported in a prophetic narrative (authentic Hadithnarrated   by   Imam   Bukhari   and   Imam   Muslim),   according   to   companion   Abdullah   ibnMassoud: "The most truthful Messenger told us that one of you is made up in his mother'swomb for 40 days. And then, it turns into a blood clot for the same amount of time. And thenhe becomes a fetus for the same amount of time. And  then the angel is sent to breathe asoul and the angel is given the order to write four words concerning his sustenance, the endof his life, his work and  his fate: will he be happy or  unhappy. " Therefore, what about thesoul in the face of the event of death, if it consists in separating oneself from the body? Inthis   case,   can   we   say   that   the   soul   is   immortal?    In truth, the soul is at once the principle of life, but also of death. It is legitimate to think thatdeath is nothing at all the end for the organic and material component and not the spiritualand immaterial one. In this terms, the soul is immortal. The simple equation of the secret oflife is to say that the soul + the body = life and that the body itself is neither death nor life.Because there are two phases when designing the body: First the phase of integration fromegg   cell  formation  and   the   so-called   phase   of   disintegration,   which   happens   during   thedecomposition of the body. Biology does not  seem to explain this immaterial component oflife. It is true to realize how important it is to grant science to the study of the organism whichcoincides   with   the   improvement   of   well-being.   Health   in   this   sense   is   an   aspect   of   thematerial and not spiritual part. The body and soul relationship is an interposition relationshipduring the breath test. Even more surprising, the body represents an obstacle for the facultyof the soul to be able to go beyond this material component which it is in secret. But death forthe  soul is  a moment  of disclosure of itself. This test  seems to him  difficult and unwantedbecause of the deficiency of the experience of the existence without body. Notwithstanding, itis through which the recent soul also a pain, a means for him to suffer suffering. The more anorganic cause seems to be a source of misery, the longer the sentence remains. But notingthat the yield is growing in a joint way. It is a punishment channel, a weak point of the soul. Inreality, the weakness of Man is not due to the immaterial component but to the material onethat emanates from a connection between two units of life that are not gametes. 
The link of generation,  more precisely: parental, fraternal or family  ties does not contain the  aspect ofthe soul. In the world beyond, this resistant filiation in the relationship between human beingswill   be  insignificant.   Because  it   is  in   the  world   of  the   organism   that   this   link   remainsunshakable.   But  the   conjugal   relationship  between   man   and  woman   is not   organic,   butpossibly not spiritual. Can we say then that there is no gender for souls? To tell the truth, theimitation of women's behavior by men and vice versa lets us consider this opinion. My wordsdo not want to say that the soul is without sex, in other words, identical for the man and thewoman and does not reproduce, but rather leave in suspense. Since these questions are notso important in the evolution of everyday life. The ideal consideration  would be to see thatthe corporeal world is only a bodily stay and that a spiritual adventure awaits us all in a timeof non-reversal. 

Abdi-Basid ADAN, 2018.

 © 2026 The Abdi-Basid Courses Institute (tABCi). All rights reserved.

 

 

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